Math · Stage 4
The 0-to-1 Likelihood Scale
Give a chance a number from 0 to 1, list the equally-likely outcomes, and predict results from the proportion.
✦ Math📘 Stage 4 · S4⏱ ~11 min🧒 Ages 8–9★ Free to start
I can place events on a 0-1 likelihood scale, list equally-likely outcomes, and predict from proportion.
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Kavi Puts a Number on Chance 🎯
"Words like likely are useful," hoots Kavi, "but mathematicians give chance a number!" Kavi draws a line. "0 means impossible, 1 means certain, and a fair coin sits right in the middle at ½. If I know the proportion that's red, I can even predict how many reds I'll get in 20 spins 🎯!"
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What your child will learn
1Put a number on the chanceEvery chance gets a spot on a line from 0 to 1. 0 = impossible, ½ = even chance (just as likely as not), 1 = certain. Nearer 0 is unlikely; nearer 1 is likely. Drop each event onto its mark.
2Count the equally-likely outcomesWhen a spinner is cut into equal parts, every part is an equally-likely outcome. The chance of one colour is that colour's parts ÷ all the parts. Here 1 of 4 equal slices is shaded, so its chance is 1/4. Tap slices to shade more.
3Use the proportion to predictIf you know the proportion, you can predict results. Chance × number of tries ≈ how many you expect. Guess first, then check.
4Spin a lot — results match the proportionKavi spun a spinner that is ½ red, ¼ blue, ¼ yellow a total of 20 times and tallied the landings. Compare the bars with the predicted shares: red ≈ 10, blue ≈ 5, yellow ≈ 5.
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A peek inside
Give the chance a number from 0 to 1: a fair coin lands on tails.
a coin has 2 equally-likely outcomes (heads, tails); tails is 1 of 2
Try this at home: Give the chance a number from 0 to 1: it is impossible for a pig to fly by itself. __
Ready to play and learn?
Start the free interactive lesson, or print the handout for screen-free play.
Part of Math · Stage 4 · S4 on KAVI Academy — a secular, whole-child learning platform for ages 5–12.